Proteomic Analyses in Diverse Populations Improved Risk Prediction and Identified New Drug Targets for Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Integrated analyses of plasma proteomics and genetic data in prospective studies can help assess the causal relevance of proteins, improve risk prediction, and discover novel protein drug targets for type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We measured plasma levels of 2,923 proteins using Olink Explore among ∼2,000 randomly selected participants from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) without prior diabetes at baseline. Cox regression assessed associations of individual protein with incident T2D (n = 92 cases). Proteomic-based risk models were developed with discrimination, calibration, reclassification assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and net reclassification index (NRI), respectively. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using cis-protein quantitative trait loci identified in a genome-wide association study of CKB and UK Biobank for specific proteins were conducted to assess their causal relevance for T2D, along with colocalization analyses to examine shared causal variants between proteins and T2D. RESULTS: Overall, 33 proteins were significantly associated (false discovery rate < 0.05) with risk of incident T2D, including IGFBP1, GHR, and amylase. The addition of these 33 proteins to a conventional risk prediction model improved AUC from 0.77 (0.73-0.82) to 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and NRI by 38%, with predicted risks well calibrated with observed risks. MR analyses provided support for the causal relevance for T2D of ENTR1, LPL, and PON3, with replication of ENTR1 and LPL in Europeans using different genetic instruments. Moreover, colocalization analyses showed strong evidence (pH4 > 0.6) of shared genetic variants of LPL and PON3 with T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Proteomic analyses in Chinese adults identified novel associations of multiple proteins with T2D with strong genetic evidence supporting their causal relevance and potential as novel drug targets for prevention and treatment of T2D.

Long-term assessment of the NHS hybrid closed-loop real-world study on glycaemic outcomes, time-in-range, and quality of life in children and young people with type 1 diabetes.

Hybrid closed-loop (HCL) systems seamlessly interface continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) with insulin pumps, employing specialised algorithms and user-initiated automated insulin delivery. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of HCLs at 12 months post-initiation on glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), time-in-range (TIR), hypoglycaemia frequency, and quality of life measures among children and young people (CYP) with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and their caregivers in a real-world setting. Conducted between August 1, 2021, and December 10, 2022, the prospective recruitment took place in eight paediatric diabetes centres across England under the National Health Service England's (NHSE) HCL pilot real-world study. A cohort of 251 CYP (58% males, mean age 12.3 years) with T1DM participated (89% white, 3% Asian, 4% black, 3% mixed ethnicity, and 1% other). The study utilised three HCL systems: (1) Tandem Control-IQ AP system, which uses the Tandem t:slim X2 insulin pump (Tandem Diabetes Care, San Diego, CA, USA) with the Dexcom G6® CGM (Dexcom, San Diego, CA, USA) sensor; (2) Medtronic MiniMed™ 780G with the Guardian 4 sensor (Medtronic, Northridge, CA, USA); and (3) the CamAPS FX (CamDiab, Cambridge, UK) with the Ypsomed insulin pump (Ypsomed Ltd, Escrick, UK) and Dexcom G6® CGM.All systems were fully funded by the NHS. Results demonstrated significant improvements in HbA1c (average reduction at 12 months 7 mmol/mol; P < 0.001), time-in-range (TIR) (average increase 13.4%; P < 0.001), hypoglycaemia frequency (50% reduction), hypoglycaemia fear, and quality of sleep (P < 0.001) among CYP over a 12-month period of HCL usage. Additionally, parents and carers experienced improvements in hypoglycaemia fear and quality of sleep after 6 and 12 months of use. In addition to the improvements in glycaemic management, these findings underscore the positive impact of HCL systems on both the well-being of CYP with T1DM and the individuals caring for them.

mtFRC: depth-dependent resolution quantification of image features in 3D fluorescence microscopy.

Motivation: Quantifying lateral resolution as a function of depth is important in the design of 3D microscopy experiments. However, for many specimens, resolution is non-uniform within the same optical plane because of factors such as tissue variability and differential light scattering. This precludes application of a simple resolution metric to the image as a whole. In such cases, it can be desirable to analyse resolution only within specific, well-defined features. Results: An algorithm and software are presented to characterize resolution as a function of depth in features of arbitrary shape in 3D samples. The tool can be used to achieve an objective comparison between different preparation methods, imaging parameters, and optical systems. It can also inform the design of experiments requiring resolution of structures at a specific scale. The method is demonstrated by quantifying the improvement in resolution of two-photon microscopy over confocal in the central brain of Drosophila melanogaster. Measurement of image quality increases by tuning a single parameter, laser power, is also shown. An ImageJ plugin implementation is provided for ease of use via a simple Graphical User Interface, with outputs in table, graph, and colourmap formats. Availability and implementation: Software and source code are available at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/rowlands-lab/resources/.

Plasma Proteomics to Identify Drug Targets for Ischemic Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Integrated analyses of plasma proteomic and genetic markers in prospective studies can clarify the causal relevance of proteins and discover novel targets for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and other diseases. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine associations of proteomics and genetics data with IHD in population studies to discover novel preventive treatments. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-cohort study in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) involving 1,971 incident IHD cases and 2,001 subcohort participants who were genotyped and free of prior cardiovascular disease. We measured 1,463 proteins in the stored baseline samples using the OLINK EXPLORE panel. Cox regression yielded adjusted HRs for IHD associated with individual proteins after accounting for multiple testing. Moreover, cis-protein quantitative loci (pQTLs) identified for proteins in genome-wide association studies of CKB and of UK Biobank were used as instrumental variables in separate 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) studies involving global CARDIOGRAM+C4D consortium (210,842 IHD cases and 1,378,170 controls). RESULTS: Overall 361 proteins were significantly associated at false discovery rate <0.05 with risk of IHD (349 positively, 12 inversely) in CKB, including N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9. Of these 361 proteins, 212 had cis-pQTLs in CKB, and MR analyses of 198 variants in CARDIOGRAM+C4D identified 13 proteins that showed potentially causal associations with IHD. Independent MR analyses of 307 cis-pQTLs identified in Europeans replicated associations for 4 proteins (FURIN, proteinase-activated receptor-1, Asialoglycoprotein receptor-1, and matrix metalloproteinase-3). Further downstream analyses showed that FURIN, which is highly expressed in endothelial cells, is a potential novel target and matrix metalloproteinase-3 a potential repurposing target for IHD. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated analyses of proteomic and genetic data in Chinese and European adults provided causal support for FURIN and multiple other proteins as potential novel drug targets for treatment of IHD.

Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Risk of Stroke Types: A Prospective Cohort Study of 500†000 Chinese Adults.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and permanent disability in China, with large and unexplained geographic variations in rates of different stroke types. Chronic hepatitis B virus infection is prevalent among Chinese adults and may play a role in stroke cause. METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank included >500 000 adults aged 30 to 79 years who were recruited from 10 (5 urban and 5 rural) geographically diverse areas of China from 2004 to 2008, with determination of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positivity at baseline. During 11 years of follow-up, a total of 59 117 incident stroke cases occurred, including 11 318 intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), 49 971 ischemic stroke, 995 subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3036 other/unspecified stroke. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of stroke types associated with HBsAg positivity. In a subset of 17 833 participants, liver enzymes and lipids levels were measured and compared by HBsAg status. RESULTS: Overall, 3.0% of participants were positive for HBsAg. HBsAg positivity was associated with an increased risk of ICH (adjusted HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16-1.44]), similarly for fatal (n=5982; adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.16-1.59]) and nonfatal (n=5336; adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.44]) ICH. There were no significant associations of HBsAg positivity with risks of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.92-1.03]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (adjusted HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.57-1.33]), or other/unspecified stroke (adjusted HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.89-1.42]). Compared with HBsAg-negative counterparts, HBsAg-positive individuals had lower lipid and albumin levels and higher liver enzyme levels. After adjustment for liver enzymes and albumin, the association with ICH from HBsAg positivity attenuated to 1.15 (0.90-1.48), suggesting possible mediation by abnormal liver function. CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, chronic hepatitis B virus infection is associated with an increased risk of ICH but not other stroke types, which may be mediated through liver dysfunction and altered lipid metabolism.

Independent relevance of adiposity measures to coronary heart disease risk among 0.5 million adults in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on body fat distribution shows opposing effects of waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) for coronary heart disease (CHD). We aimed to investigate the causality and the shape of such associations. METHODS: UK Biobank is a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million adults aged 40-69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of measured and genetically predicted body mass index (BMI), WC, HC and waist-to-hip ratio with incident CHD were obtained from Cox models. Mendelian randomization (MR) was used to assess causality. The analysis included 456 495 participants (26 225 first-ever CHD events) without prior CHD. RESULTS: All measures of adiposity demonstrated strong, positive and approximately log-linear associations with CHD risk over a median follow-up of 12.7 years. For HC, however, the association became inverse given the BMI and WC (HR per usual SD 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97). Associations for BMI and WC remained independently positive after adjustment for other adiposity measures and were similar (1.14, 1.13-1.16 and 1.18, 1.15-1.20, respectively), with WC displaying stronger associations among women. Blood pressure, plasma lipids and dysglycaemia accounted for much of the observed excess risk. MR results were generally consistent with the observational, implying causality. CONCLUSIONS: Body fat distribution measures displayed similar associations with CHD risk as BMI except for HC, which was inversely associated with CHD risk (given WC and BMI). These findings suggest that different measures of body fat distribution likely influence CHD risk through both overlapping and independent mechanisms.

Conventional and genetic associations of adiposity with 1463 proteins in relatively lean Chinese adults.

Adiposity is associated with multiple diseases and traits, but little is known about the causal relevance and mechanisms underlying these associations. Large-scale proteomic profiling, especially when integrated with genetic data, can clarify mechanisms linking adiposity with disease outcomes. We examined the associations of adiposity with plasma levels of 1463 proteins in 3977 Chinese adults, using measured and genetically-instrumented BMI. We further used two-sample bi-directional MR analyses to assess if certain proteins influenced adiposity, along with other (e.g. enrichment) analyses to clarify possible mechanisms underlying the observed associations. Overall, the mean (SD) baseline BMI was 23.9 (3.3) kg/m2, with only 6% being obese (i.e. BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Measured and genetically-instrumented BMI was significantly associated at FDR < 0.05 with levels of 1096 (positive/inverse: 826/270) and 307 (positive/inverse: 270/37) proteins, respectively, with FABP4, LEP, IL1RN, LSP1, GOLM2, TNFRSF6B, and ADAMTS15 showing the strongest positive and PON3, NCAN, LEPR, IGFBP2 and MOG showing the strongest inverse genetic associations. These associations were largely linear, in adiposity-to-protein direction, and replicated (> 90%) in Europeans of UKB (mean BMI 27.4 kg/m2). Enrichment analyses of the top > 50 BMI-associated proteins demonstrated their involvement in atherosclerosis, lipid metabolism, tumour progression and inflammation. Two-sample bi-directional MR analyses using cis-pQTLs identified in CKB GWAS found eight proteins (ITIH3, LRP11, SCAMP3, NUDT5, OGN, EFEMP1, TXNDC15, PRDX6) significantly affect levels of BMI, with NUDT5 also showing bi-directional association. The findings among relatively lean Chinese adults identified novel pathways by which adiposity may increase disease risks and novel potential targets for treatment of obesity and obesity-related diseases.

Characterising personal, household, and community PM2.5 exposure in one urban and two rural communities in China.

BACKGROUND: Cooking and heating in households contribute importantly to air pollution exposure worldwide. However, there is insufficient investigation of measured fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure levels, variability, seasonality, and inter-spatial dynamics associated with these behaviours. METHODS: We undertook parallel measurements of personal, household (kitchen and living room), and community PM2.5 in summer (May-September 2017) and winter (November 2017-Janauary 2018) in 477 participants from one urban and two rural communities in China. After stringent data cleaning, there were 67,326-80,980 person-hours (ntotal = 441; nsummer = 384; nwinter = 364; 307 had repeated PM2.5 data in both seasons) of processed data per microenvironment. Age- and sex-adjusted geometric means of PM2.5 were calculated by key participant characteristics, overall and by season. Spearman correlation coefficients between PM2.5 levels across different microenvironments were computed. FINDINGS: Overall, 26.4 % reported use of solid fuel for both cooking and heating. Solid fuel users had 92 % higher personal and kitchen 24-h average PM2.5 exposure than clean fuel users. Similarly, they also had a greater increase (83 % vs 26 %) in personal and household PM2.5 from summer to winter, whereas community levels of PM2.5 were 2-4 times higher in winter across different fuel categories. Compared with clean fuel users, solid fuel users had markedly higher weighted annual average PM2.5 exposure at personal (78.2 [95 % CI 71.6-85.3] µg/m3 vs 41.6 [37.3-46.5] µg/m3), kitchen (102.4 [90.4-116.0] µg/m3 vs 52.3 [44.8-61.2] µg/m3) and living room (62.1 [57.3-67.3] µg/m3 vs 41.0 [37.1-45.3] µg/m3) microenvironments. There was a remarkable diurnal variability in PM2.5 exposure among the participants, with 5-min moving average from 10 µg/m3 to 700-1200 µg/m3 across different microenvironments. Personal PM2.5 was moderately correlated with living room (Spearman r: 0.64-0.66) and kitchen (0.52-0.59) levels, but only weakly correlated with community levels, especially in summer (0.15-0.34) and among solid fuel users (0.11-0.31). CONCLUSION: Solid fuel use for cooking and heating was associated with substantially higher personal and household PM2.5 exposure than clean fuel users. Household PM2.5 appeared a better proxy of personal exposure than community PM2.5.

Alcohol consumption and risks of more than 200 diseases in Chinese men.

Alcohol consumption accounts for ~3 million annual deaths worldwide, but uncertainty persists about its relationships with many diseases. We investigated the associations of alcohol consumption with 207 diseases in the 12-year China Kadoorie Biobank of >512,000 adults (41% men), including 168,050 genotyped for ALDH2- rs671 and ADH1B- rs1229984 , with >1.1 million ICD-10 coded hospitalized events. At baseline, 33% of men drank alcohol regularly. Among men, alcohol intake was positively associated with 61 diseases, including 33 not defined by the World Health Organization as alcohol-related, such as cataract (n = 2,028; hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.33, per 280 g per week) and gout (n = 402; 1.57, 1.33-1.86). Genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake was positively associated with established (n = 28,564; 1.14, 1.09-1.20) and new alcohol-associated (n = 16,138; 1.06, 1.01-1.12) diseases, and with specific diseases such as liver cirrhosis (n = 499; 2.30, 1.58-3.35), stroke (n = 12,176; 1.38, 1.27-1.49) and gout (n = 338; 2.33, 1.49-3.62), but not ischemic heart disease (n = 8,408; 1.04, 0.94-1.14). Among women, 2% drank alcohol resulting in low power to assess associations of self-reported alcohol intake with disease risks, but genetic findings in women suggested the excess male risks were not due to pleiotropic genotypic effects. Among Chinese men, alcohol consumption increased multiple disease risks, highlighting the need to strengthen preventive measures to reduce alcohol intake.

Long-term ambient air pollution exposure and cardio-respiratory disease in China: findings from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Existing evidence on long-term ambient air pollution (AAP) exposure and risk of cardio-respiratory diseases in China is mainly on mortality, and based on area average concentrations from fixed-site monitors for individual exposures. Substantial uncertainty persists, therefore, about the shape and strength of the relationship when assessed using more personalised individual exposure data. We aimed to examine the relationships between AAP exposure and risk of cardio-respiratory diseases using predicted local levels of AAP. METHODS: A prospective study included 50,407 participants aged 30-79 years from Suzhou, China, with concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), fine (PM2.5), and inhalable (PM10) particulate matter, ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) and incident cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n = 2,563) and respiratory disease (n = 1,764) recorded during 2013-2015. Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for diseases associated with local-level concentrations of AAP exposure, estimated using Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling. RESULTS: The study period of 2013-2015 included a total of 135,199 person-years of follow-up for CVD. There was a positive association of AAP, particularly SO2 and O3, with risk of major cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in SO2 was associated with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.12) for CVD, 1.25 (1.08, 1.44) for COPD and 1.12 (1.02, 1.23) for pneumonia. Similarly, each 10 µg/m3 increase in O3 was associated with adjusted HR of 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) for CVD, 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) for all stroke, and 1.04 (1.02, 1.06) for pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults in urban China, long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with a higher risk of cardio-respiratory disease.

Heterogeneity in the diagnosis and prognosis of ischemic stroke subtypes: 9-year follow-up of 22,000 cases in Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Reliable classification of ischemic stroke (IS) etiological subtypes is required in research and clinical practice, but the predictive properties of these subtypes in population studies with incomplete investigations are poorly understood. AIMS: To compare the prognosis of etiologically classified IS subtypes and use machine learning (ML) to classify incompletely investigated IS cases. METHODS: In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 512,726 Chinese adults, 22,216 incident IS cases, confirmed by clinical adjudication of medical records, were assigned subtypes using a modified Causative Classification System for Ischemic Stroke (CCS) (large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), small artery occlusion (SAO), cardioaortic embolism (CE), or undetermined etiology) and classified by CCS as "evident," "probable," or "possible" IS cases. For incompletely investigated IS cases where CCS yielded an undetermined etiology, an ML model was developed to predict IS subtypes from baseline risk factors and screening for cardioaortic sources of embolism. The 5-year risks of subsequent stroke and all-cause mortality (measured using cumulative incidence functions and 1 minus Kaplan-Meier estimates, respectively) for the ML-predicted IS subtypes were compared with etiologically classified IS subtypes. RESULTS: Among 7443 IS subtypes with evident or probable etiology, 66% had SAO, 32% had LAA, and 2% had CE, but proportions of SAO-to-LAA cases varied by regions in China. CE had the highest rates of subsequent stroke and mortality (43.5% and 40.7%), followed by LAA (43.2% and 17.4%) and SAO (38.1% and 11.1%), respectively. ML provided classifications for cases with undetermined etiology and incomplete clinical data (24% of all IS cases; n = 5276), with area under the curves (AUC) of 0.99 (0.99-1.00) for CE, 0.67 (0.64-0.70) for LAA, and 0.70 (0.67-0.73) for SAO for unseen cases. ML-predicted IS subtypes yielded comparable subsequent stroke and all-cause mortality rates to the etiologically classified IS subtypes. CONCLUSION: This study highlighted substantial heterogeneity in prognosis of IS subtypes and utility of ML approaches for classification of IS cases with incomplete clinical investigations.

Genetically Predicted Differences in Systolic Blood Pressure and Risk of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study in Chinese Adults.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization studies of systolic blood pressure (SBP) can assess the shape and strength of the associations of genetically predicted differences in SBP with major disease outcomes and are less constrained by biases in observational analyses. This study aimed to compare the associations of usual and genetically predicted SBP with major cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, overall and by levels of SBP, age, and sex. METHODS: The China Kadoorie Biobank involved a 12-year follow-up of a prospective study of 489 495 adults aged 40 to 79 years with no prior CVD and 86 060 with genetic data. Outcomes included major vascular events (59 490/23 151 in observational/genetic analyses), and its components (ischemic stroke [n=39 513/12 043], intracerebral hemorrhage [7336/5243], and major coronary events [7871/4187]). Genetically predicted SBP used 460 variants obtained from European ancestry genome-wide studies. Cox regression estimated adjusted hazard ratios for incident CVD outcomes down to usual SBP levels of 120 mm Hg. RESULTS: Both observational and genetic analyses demonstrated log-linear positive associations of SBP with major vascular event and other major CVD types in the range of 120 to 170 mm Hg. Consistent with the observational analyses, the hazard ratios per 10 mm Hg higher genetically predicted SBP were 2-fold greater for intracerebral hemorrhage (1.71 [95% CI, 1.58-1.87]) than for ischemic stroke (1.37 [1.30-1.45]) or major coronary event (1.29 [1.18-1.42]). Genetic analyses also demonstrated 2-fold greater hazard ratios for major vascular event in younger (1.69 [95% CI, 1.54-1.86]) than in older people (1.28 [1.18-1.38]). CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide support for initiation of blood pressure-lowering treatment at younger ages and below the conventional cut-offs for hypertension to maximize CVD prevention, albeit the absolute risks of CVD are far greater in older people.

Real world use of hybrid-closed loop in children and young people with type 1 diabetes mellitus-a National Health Service pilot initiative in England.

AIMS: Hybrid closed-loop (HCL) systems are characterised by integrating continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) with insulin pumps that automate insulin delivery via specific algorithms and user-initiated insulin delivery. The aim of the study was to evaluate effectiveness of HCLs on HbA1c, time-in-range (TIR), hypoglycaemia frequency and quality of life measures in children and young people (CYP) with T1D, and their carers. METHODS: Patients were recruited prospectively into the National Health Service (NHS) England real-world HCL observational study from the 1st of August 2021 to the 10th of December 2022 from eight paediatric diabetes centres in England. RESULTS: There were 251 CYP (147 males, 58%) with T1DM recruited with a mean age at recruitment of 12.3 (SD 3.5) (range 2-19) years. Eighty nine per cent of the CYP were of white ethnicity, 3% Asian, 4% black and 3% mixed ethnicity, and 1% were recorded as others. The HCL systems used in the study were: (1) Tandem Control-IQ AP system, which uses the Tandem t:slim X2 insulin pump (Tandem Diabetes Care, San Diego, CA) with the Dexcom G6® CGM (Dexcom, San Diego, CA) sensor; (2) Medtronic MiniMed™ 780G (Medtronic, Northridge, CA) and (3) CamAPS FX (CamDiab, Cambridge, UK.) All systems were fully funded by the national health service. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the NHS England Closed Loop Study in Children and Young People showed improvements in glycaemic control, TIR, frequency of hypoglycaemia, hypoglycaemia fear and quality of sleep for children and young people when using HCL for 6 months. Hypoglycaemia fear and quality of sleep were also improved for their parents and carers at 6 months.

Tobacco smoking and risks of more than 470 diseases in China: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is estimated to account for more than 1 million annual deaths in China, and the epidemic continues to increase in men. Large nationwide prospective studies linked to different health records can help to periodically assess disease burden attributed to smoking. We aimed to examine associations of smoking with incidence of and mortality from an extensive range of diseases in China. METHODS: We analysed data from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, which recruited 512 726 adults aged 30-79 years, of whom 210 201 were men and 302 525 were women. Participants who had no major disabilities were identified through local residential records in 100-150 administrative units, which were randomly selected by use of multistage cluster sampling, from each of the ten diverse study areas of China. They were invited and recruited between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Upon study entry, trained health workers administered a questionnaire assessing detailed smoking behaviours and other key characteristics (eg, sociodemographics, lifestyle, and medical history). Participants were followed up via electronic record linkages to death and disease registries and health insurance databases, from baseline to Jan 1, 2018. During a median 11-year follow-up (IQR 10-12), 285 542 (55·7%) participants were ever hospitalised, 48 869 (9·5%) died, and 5252 (1·0%) were lost to follow-up during the age-at-risk of 35-84 years. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios (HRs) associating smoking with disease incidence and mortality, adjusting for multiple testing. FINDINGS: At baseline, 74·3% of men and 3·2% of women (overall 32·4%) ever smoked regularly. During follow-up, 1 137 603 International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10)-coded incident events occurred, involving 476 distinct conditions and 85 causes of death, each with at least 100 cases. Compared with never-regular smokers, ever-regular smokers had significantly higher risks for nine of 18 ICD-10 chapters examined at age-at-risk of 35-84 years. For individual conditions, smokers had significantly higher risks of 56 diseases (50 for men and 24 for women) and 22 causes of death (17 for men and nine for women). Among men, ever-regular smokers had an HR of 1·09 (95% CI 1·08-1·11) for any disease incidence when compared with never-regular smokers, and significantly more episodes and longer duration of hospitalisation, particularly those due to cancer and respiratory diseases. For overall mortality, the HRs were greater in men from urban areas than in men from rural areas (1·50 [1·42-1·58] vs 1·25 [1·20-1·30]). Among men from urban areas who began smoking at younger than 18 years, the HRs were 2·06 (1·89-2·24) for overall mortality and 1·32 (1·27-1·37) for any disease incidence. In this population, 19·6% of male (24·3% of men residing in urban settings and 16·2% of men residing in rural settings) and 2·8% of female deaths were attributed to ever-regular smoking. INTERPRETATION: Among Chinese adults, smoking was associated with higher risks of morbidity and mortality from a wide range of diseases. Among men, the future smoking-attributed disease burden will increase further, highlighting a pressing need for reducing consumption through widespread cessation and uptake prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust.

Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter and Incidence of Major Cardiovascular Diseases: A Prospective Study of 0.5 Million Adults in China.

Few cohort studies explored the long-term effects of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), especially in countries with higher levels of air pollution. We aimed to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and incidence of CVD in China. We performed a prospective cohort study in ten regions that recruited 512,689 adults during 2004-2008, with follow-up until 2017. Annual PM2.5 concentrations were estimated using a satellite-based model with national coverage and 1 x 1 km spatial resolution. Time-varying Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cause-specific CVDs associated with PM2.5, adjusting for conventional covariates. During 5.08 million person-years of follow-up, 148,030 incident cases of CVD were identified. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 showed positive and linear association with incidence of CVD, without a threshold below any concentration. The adjusted HRs per 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was 1.04 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.07) for total CVD. The risk estimates differed between certain population subgroups, with greater HRs in men, in household with higher income, and in people using unclean heating fuels. This prospective study of large Chinese population provided essential epidemiological evidence for CVD incident risk associated with PM2.5.

Conventional and genetic risk factors for chronic Hepatitis B virus infection in a community-based study of 0.5 million Chinese adults.

Despite universal vaccination of newborns, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis virus B (HBV) infection and the associated disease burden remain high among adults in China. We investigated risk factors for chronic HBV infection in a community-based study of 512,726 individuals aged 30-79 years recruited from ten diverse areas during 2004-2008. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positivity recorded at baseline by sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, and medical history. In a random subset (n = 69,898) we further assessed the association of 18 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously shown to be associated with HBsAg positivity and development of chronic liver disease (CLD) (1600 cases). Several factors showed strong associations with HBsAg positivity, particularly younger age (< 40 vs. ≥ 60 years: OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.32-1.66), male sex (1.40, 1.34-1.46) and urban residency (1.55, 1.47-1.62). Of the 18 SNPs selected, 17 were associated with HBsAg positivity, and 14 with CLD, with SNPs near HLA-DPB1 were most strongly associated with both outcomes. In Chinese adults a range of genetic and non-genetic factors were associated with chronic HBV infection and CLD, which can inform targeted screening to help prevent disease progression.

Diagnostic accuracy of major stroke types in Chinese adults: A clinical adjudication study involving 40,000 stroke cases.

Background: Widespread use of brain imaging in suspected stroke cases in Chinese adults has prompted the need for clinical adjudication studies of stroke types. We conducted a clinical adjudication study to assess the reporting and diagnostic accuracy of major stroke types. Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >512,000 adults (mean age 52 years, 59% women) from 10 urban and rural areas in China during 2004-2008, and recorded 45,859 first-ever incident stroke cases during an 11-year follow-up. Medical records were retrieved in ∼85%, and clinical details were recorded using a handheld computer for specialist physician adjudicators who applied conventional WHO clinical criteria for diagnosis of stroke. The positive predictive value (PPV) for reported and adjudicated stroke cases was examined for major stroke types (ischaemic stroke [IS], intracerebral haemorrhage [ICH], subarachnoid haemorrhage [SAH]), calendar year, area, and hospital type. Findings: Of 38,823 cases with retrieved medical records, the PPV for reported strokes was 91%. Among 29,952 adjudicated cases, the PPV for adjudicated cases was 81%, with higher PPV for ICH (n = 3391; 98%) and SAH (364; 98%) than for IS (20,473; 79%). Of 5504 cases with a verified IS diagnosis that was refuted on adjudication, 3763 (68%) had silent lacunar infarcts (LACI). The proportion of cases with silent LACI increased from 7.1% in 2004-2008 to 18.2% in 2016-2017. If cases with silent LACI were classified as IS, as advocated by new International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) diagnostic criteria for stroke involving imaging and clinical rather than clinical criteria alone, the PPV increased to 93%. Interpretation: While the overall reporting and diagnostic accuracy of stroke types in Chinese adults is high, the recent implementation of new diagnostic criteria for IS has important implications for contemporary clinical practice and research on stroke in Chinese populations. Funding: Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Hong Kong, China, UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), Chinese National Natural Science Foundation (91843302), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0900500, 2016YFC0900501, 2016YFC0900504, 2016YFC1303904). British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council, and Cancer Research UK.

Fifteen-minute consultation: The child with obesity.

Obesity is common among children and young people, with potential for significant clinical consequences. The physical and psychological comorbidities associated with childhood obesity persist into adult life, but many children do not have access to tailored obesity services. We present a framework for the identification, assessment and management of childhood obesity by the non-specialist. We also offer strategies to initiate discussions about weight and to communicate effectively with patients living with obesity.

Fifteen-minute consultation: Practical use of continuous glucose monitoring.

Type 1 diabetes is a self-managed condition. Regular monitoring of blood glucose (BG) levels has been the cornerstone of diabetes management. Finger prick BG testing traditionally has been the standard method employed. More recently, rapid advancements in the development of continuous glucose monitoring devices have led to increased use of technology to help children and young people with diabetes manage their condition. These devices have the potential to improve diabetes control and reduce hypoglycaemia especially if used in conjunction with a pump to automate insulin delivery. This paper aims to provide an update on main CGM devices available and practical considerations for doctors if they come across a child with diabetes who is using one of these devices.

Single-centre case-control study investigating the association between acanthosis nigricans, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes in a young, overweight, UK population.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which the presence of acanthosis nigricans confers additional risk for insulin resistance, in addition to obesity alone (body mass index, BMI) within a young, overweight, UK population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Retrospective data were collected to compare the degree of insulin resistance within a sample of 94 young people with acanthosis nigricans, and a matched cohort of 94 participants with obesity alone. Insulin resistance was assessed by fasting glucose, fasting insulin and Homeostatic Model Assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) score (a mathematical model derived to measure insulin resistance). RESULTS: The acanthotic and control group were well matched for age, BMI, BMI SDS and sex, although the groups were not matched for ethnicity. The acanthotic group showed a significantly greater median fasting insulin (215 pmol/L), mean fasting glucose (4.7 mmol/L) and median HOMA-IR score (6.4), compared with the control group (126 pmol/L, 4.5 mmol/L and 3.7, respectively). The presence of acanthosis nigricans as an indicator of insulin resistance was found to have a positive predictive value of 81% (within this study population). CONCLUSION: Individuals with both acanthosis nigricans and obesity had significantly greater degrees of insulin resistance than individuals with obesity alone. The findings support the potential for acanthosis nigricans as a visible marker of type 2 diabetes in young people.